The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new analysis showing that the damage to air travel from coronavirus extends into the medium-term, with long-haul international travel being the most severely impacted.
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Quarantine measures on arrival would further damage confidence in air travel. A risk-based layered approach of globally harmonized biosecurity measures is critical for the restart.
IATA and Tourism Economics modeled two air travel scenarios.
Baseline Scenario
This is contingent on domestic markets opening in Q3, with a much slower phased opening of international markets. This would limit the air travel recovery, despite most forecasts pointing toward a strong economic rebound late this year and during 2021.
In 2021 we expect global passenger demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers, RPKs) to be 24% below 2019 levels and 32% lower than IATA’s October 2019 Air Passenger forecast for 2021.
We don’t expect 2019 levels to be exceeded until 2023.
As international markets open and economies recover, there will be further growth in air travel from the 2020 low point. But even by 2025 we would expect global RPKs to be 10% lower than the previous forecast.
Pessimistic Scenario
This is based on a slower opening of economies and relaxation of travel restrictions, with lockdowns extending into Q3, possibly due to a second wave of the virus. This would further delay the recovery of air travel.
In this case, global RPKs in 2021 could be 34% lower than 2019 levels and 41% below our previous forecast for 2021.
IATA strongly urges governments to find alternatives to maintaining or introducing arrival quarantine measures as part of post-pandemic travel restrictions. IATA’s April survey of recent air travelers showed that
86% of travelers were somewhat or very concerned about being quarantined while traveling, and
69% of recent travelers would not consider travelling if it involved a 14-day quarantine period.
“Even in the best of circumstances this crisis will cost many jobs and rob the economy of years of aviation-stimulated growth. To protect aviation’s ability to be a catalyst for the economic recovery, we must not make that prognosis worse by making travel impracticable with quarantine measures,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO. ■
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