POST Online Media Lite Edition


Irish central bank says there will be 100,000 fewer jobs after no-deal Brexit

Christian Fernsby |
The Central Bank of Ireland has forecast major job losses and a reduction in economic growth in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Article continues below

Its latest report predicts there will be around 34,000 fewer jobs by the end of next year and more than 100,000 fewer jobs over the medium term compared to their forecast if a deal on Brexit can be reached.

The Central Bank of Ireland issued its report after Boris Johnson clashed with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar over the backstop in their first phone call since the Tory MP became Prime Minister.

The third quarterly report examines recent trends in the domestic economy and provides the Central Bank's forecasts for the Irish economy and its views on domestic economic policy issues.

The report found that the economic growth is expected to be 4.9% this year, moderating to 4.1% in 2020.

The unemployment rate is projected to decline from 4.7% this year to 4.5% in 2020.

Compensation per employee is forecast to increase by 3.6% in 2019 and 4.1% in 2020, while inflation is predicted to pick up moderately.

In the event of a no-deal Brexit from the end of October, the Central Bank estimates suggest that economic growth would be reduced to 0.7% next year, with around 34,000 fewer jobs by the end of 2020 compared to the central forecast.

The Central Bank's central forecast is that growth in 2019 and 2020 is expected to come primarily from the continued expansion in underlying domestic demand, reflected in solid growth in consumer spending and underlying investment.

The central forecasts are based on a deal on Brexit being reached and a transition period coming into effect until the end of 2020.

Given the unprecedented nature of Brexit, and the uncertainties in the international trading environment, there is considerable uncertainty around potential outcomes.

In the event that a disorderly, no-deal Brexit can be avoided, underlying economic activity is expected to perform strongly in 2019 and 2020.

Mark Cassidy, the Central Bank's director of economics and statistics, said: "In the event that the disruption from a no-deal Brexit is avoided, there is a risk of overheating occurring in the Irish economy given that output is now at or close to full capacity.

"In the event that a no-deal Brexit were to occur there would be a significant weakening of activity across many parts of the economy.

"Our current projection is that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the economy would expand by 0.7% in 2020, as opposed to 4.1% if a deal can be agreed.

"The uncertainties around Brexit and managing the risk of overheating increase both the challenge and importance of charting the appropriate fiscal policy path.

"If a disorderly Brexit can be avoided, the underlying outlook and, in particular, the risk of overheating, emphasises the importance of a more ambitious improvement in the fiscal position.

"With output at or close to potential, a tighter fiscal policy would help to manage demand pressures and reduce the risk of overheating and a return to boom-bust type conditions.

"On the other hand, if a disorderly Brexit were to occur, there would be a material deterioration in the public finances and the fiscal environment would be significantly more challenging.

"In this case, there may be the need to provide targeted support to the parts of the economy that are most affected.

"However, it is important that any fiscal response is consistent with long-run debt sustainability and does not undo the hard work in re-establishing Ireland's fiscal credibility and risk the emergence of unsustainable debt dynamics."

What to read next

Forget beer, Irish whiskey is booming in U.S.
Irish businesses look to the East for new opportunities
Irish homeowners could face spending €5,000 on replacing lead pipes

Heat continues in southwest U.S.; severe thunderstorms in Central Plains

Upper-level energy, a weak front, and a surge of moisture moving northward over the Southern Plains into the Central Plains will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains.


U.S. oil and gas rig count falls to 594
Passenger train hits freight train in Czech Republic, 4 killed, 27 injured
Deutsche Aircraft starts final assembly line construction, will create up to 350 jobs
Ontario supports laid off auto workers in Windsor and Chatham


Rhine in south Germany reopened for cargo shipping

Active pattern for center of U.S.; increasing rainfall threat for Pacific Northwest
Greece finds 109 kg of cocaine in ship container with frozen squid
South Korean tycoon ordered to pay $1bn for divorce
Malta's former prime minister Joseph Muscat charged with corruption
Tracking areas of severe thunderstorms, excessive rainfall, and excessive heat in U.S.


UN's Guterres: Advertising from fossil fuel companies must be banned

U.S. drillers cut oil and gas rigs
EIB signs €75.5 million deal to revamp Montenegro’s railways
U.S. drillers cut oil and gas rigs to 600
U.S oil and gas rigs count increased by 1 to 604
NYCEDC supporting major battery energy storage project in New York City

Trending Now

Bulgaria set to start construction of Vertical Gas Corridor

HDF Energy inaugurates world's first high-power hydrogen fuel cell factory in Blanquefort, France

UN's Guterres: Advertising from fossil fuel companies must be banned

U.S. oil and gas rig count falls to 594


Poland building fortifications on its eastern border

Bulgaria set to start construction of Vertical Gas Corridor
Argentine president Milei says to lay off another 50,000 civil servants to reduce spending
Commission approves Italian State aid scheme to support electricity production from renewable energy sources
Italy, Germany and Austria sign cooperation deal on SoutH2 pipeline
Commission approves €2 billion Italian State aid measure to support STMicroelectronics

Today We Recommend

UN's Guterres: Advertising from fossil fuel companies must be banned


Deutsche Aircraft starts final assembly line construction, will create up to 350 jobs

North Carolina: Amrep Manufacturing Company adding 170 new jobs in Rowan County

Commission approves €2 billion Italian State aid measure to support STMicroelectronics


MSC launches Britannia: New standalone loop connecting Asia to North Europe

HDF Energy inaugurates world's first high-power hydrogen fuel cell factory in Blanquefort, France
Epiphone legendary bluegrass instruments are back, Gibson annouces Jason Isbell Red Eye 1959 Les Paul Standard
North Carolina: Amrep Manufacturing Company adding 170 new jobs in Rowan County
Saudi Arabia to sell 0.64 pct Aramco stake worth over $10b
Germany approves unrestricted sales of 100% renewable diesel


Ocean Outdoor announces group CEO succession plan

Rajesh Chandiramani takes over as Comviva CEO
Azentio appoints Rahul Arora as new chief sales officer
Orion Innovation names Kelly Ercolino SVP of marketing
CLG appoints Yves Ollivier as managing director in Pointe Noire Congo
BioMar announces changes in management in Ecuador


Eurozone reports modest Q1 GDP growth, stable annual inflation

Italy sees faster economic growth in Q1
Slovenia's economy expected to grow 0.9 pct in Q1
Italy faces deficit infringement procedure
Real GDP increased in all 50 U.S. states
Inflation continues to decline in Germany


Lululemon athletica Q1 revenue increased 10% to $2.2 billion

PVH Q1 GAAP EBIT $205 million
Dollar General Q1 operating profit decreased 26.3%
Guess Q1 revenue increased by 7%
Macy's Q1 diluted earnings per share $0.22
Afreximbank delivers strong Q1 results


Micromanaging is the worst enemy of efficiency and teamwork

Niger set to monetize massive gas reserves through Saharan natural gas pipeline
Putting the brakes on EV folly that choked the market
Oil discovery in Kavango Basin may mean huge benefits for Namibians
Cape Town and Dubai battle over Africa's energy future
Is America going to lose its superpower status?


Hong Kong suspends import of poultry meat and products from Sioux County, Iowa

Hong Kong suspends import of poultry meat and products from areas in India, U.S. and Korea
UK declares freedom from bird flu
Belgium second EU country to authorise bluetongue vaccine
UK government unveils major package of farming and food sector support
Governor Desantis signs legislation to keep lab-grown meat out of Florida


Study finds workers misjudge wage markets

Some organizations may need to expand their hierarchical structures earlier than others
Study finds there's right way and wrong way to deliver negative feedback in workplace
Allyship is critical and its needs appreciation
Generating 'buzz' about new products can influence their success
Hiring 'problem directors' can knock up to 64% off firm's value


EU Commission fines Mondelēz €337.5 million for cross-border trade restrictions

HSBC pays penalties for alleged breaches of Consumer Data Right rules
Sanofi to settle thousands of Zantac cancer lawsuits
Former asset manager and board member of Geneva private bank referred to Swiss Federal Criminal Court
South Africa: SAP ordered to pay SIU $26m over 'invalid' Eskom contracts
Former Steinhoff director appears in court for $1.1b fraud, racketeering



Morocco’s first Radisson branded hotel opens in Casablanca

Buna channels, an unreal and beautiful part of Bosnia and Herzegovina
JW Marriott unveils Mindful Haven with opening of JW Marriott Hotel Nairobi
Sotheby's Sports Week returns with fantastic artifacts
Red Roof properties open in Michigan
Treyam, your premier lagoon destination in Saudi Arabia


2025 Chevrolet Equinox stands apart with fresh looks and capability

Hill Helicopters HX50, luxury in the sky
Opel Movano becomes fully equipped camper van
Porsche Panamera, new hybrid variants
Dodge Charger, 670 horsepower of electric
Pagani Huayra R Evo, 900 hp from 770 Nm


Cold night, hot fire pit, cool entertainment

Embellish your home with PVC panels
You'll have to hurry if you want one of 20 new Louis Vuitton watches
Luxury duvet looks good, fells good and keeps you healthy
Vacheron Constantin, watches for life and more
Schüller kitchens, where functionality marries design


reMarkable 2, monochrome tablet for your thoughts and your eyes

OnePlus Ace 3V, first with Snapdragon 7 Plus Gen 3
ASUS Zenfone 11 Ultra, flagship with a reason
Samsung Galaxy S24 is photography powerhouse
Casette tapes are making a big comeback, and so are portable players
Neumann TLM 103, standard microphone for both voice and music


UK: People with HIV can now donate eggs or sperm to start family

EU health watchdog urges vaccinations to stem surge in Whooping Cough cases
Brazil resumes insulin production after two decades
India launches first home-grown gene therapy for cancer
UK scientists win funding for 'cancer detecting' Lollipops
State to cover rare disease treatment costs in Bulgaria


Potentially habitable 'exo-Venus' with Earth-like temperature discovered

Rare species of wild bees discovered in Berlin
SLAC completes construction of largest digital camera ever built for astronomy
Solar eclipse next week in U.S., Mexico and Canada
Gravitational waves may have made human life possible
Astronomers unveil strong magnetic fields spiraling at the edge of Milky Way's central black hole