Newly imposed tariffs, retaliation could cost U.S. one million jobs
The study examines the economic effects of tariffs imposed by the United States on imports of foreign products since March 2018, retaliatory tariffs from other countries, and threatened tariffs on the U.S. economy and U.S. workers, one to three years after they have been in effect.
The study "Estimated Impacts of Tariffs on the U.S. Economy and Workers" was conducted by Trade Partnership Worldwide, LLC, and commissioned by the pro-free trade group Tariffs Hurt the Heartland.
"The trade war is already creating enormous economic loss, and this report shows how much worse it could get," said Tariffs Hurt the Heartland spokesman and former Congressman Charles Boustany.
Researchers looked at four scenarios, with the "base scenario" showing that steel and aluminum tariffs and quotas in effect, tariffs on U.S. imports of selected goods from China, plus retaliation, could lead to a loss of 934,700 U.S. jobs and cut the annual U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.37 percent.
The United States has imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports from a wide range of its trading partners, including Mexico, Canada and the European Union. Many of them imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports.
The "base scenario" also considered the U.S. imposition of additional tariffs and threatened tariffs against Chinese products in addition to China's retaliation.
Annual U.S. exports of goods and services overall would decline by 5.6 percent based on 2017 levels as a result of the tariffs, and imports would fall by 6.5 percent, according to the base scenario.
In another scenario concerning tariffs against all imports from China, plus Chinese retaliation, the United States would risk losing more than 2 million jobs, and reducing the annual GDP by over 1 percent. ■