"Data providing greater coverage of alcohol sales in the independent retail sector, and including the year following the introduction of Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP), is now available to us.
"We have updated the per-adult sales estimates originally published in the 2020 MESAS Monitoring Report, and our statistical analysis of off-trade alcohol sales in the year following the implementation of MUP accordingly. The independent sector includes small retailers and grocery stores with fewer than 10 outlets and accounts for approximately 6% of all off-trade sales (by value).
"In the updated analysis, undertaken in collaboration with the University of Glasgow, we observed the estimated net effect of MUP to be a 3.5% reduction (95% confidence interval: 2.2% to 4.9%) in off-trade alcohol sales per adult in the year following implementation – after adjustment for sales in our control area (England & Wales), disposable income and substitution between trade sectors.
"Whilst slightly lower than previously reported, both the estimated net effect of MUP and the observed impact of MUP on different drink categories are comparable with our original findings, with reductions in cider, perry and spirits, while per adult sales of fortified wine and ready-to-drink beverages increased.
"Unadjusted analyses show that per adult off-trade sales fell by 2% (95% confidence interval: 0.4% to 3.6%) in Scotland overall, while they rose by 2.4% (95% confidence interval: 0.8% to 4.0%) in England & Wales.
"When using the updated dataset our estimates of population level alcohol consumption in Scotland were generally higher than previously reported. However our estimate in Scotland in 2019 remains at 9.9 litres of pure alcohol per adult, equivalent to 19.1 units of alcohol per adult per week and the lowest level of pure alcohol sold in Scotland since 1994."
A Fall heatwave will continue into the weekend over portions of the Desert Southwest and central/southern California as a persistent trend of upper-ridging over the region remains in place.