The economies of the Middle East countries will suffer a 3.3 percent contraction, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) distributed on Sunday in this capital.
Hit by the coronavirus pandemic and falling oil prices, the region will suffer greater damage than occurred during the 2008-2009 global crisis, the report said.
The prediction assures that all Arab countries and Iran will register their worst economic performance since 1978, when widespread unrest reduced the region's economy by 4.7 percent, according to World Bank data.
According to the IMF, Middle East, with the exception of Egypt, will see its gross domestic product fall this year.
From mid-January to the end of March, oil prices fell by 65 percent or below 40 dollars a barrel, while gas prices fell by 38 percent, the IMF text states.
The world organization's projections say that the barrel will be traded at less than 45 dollars until 2023, 25 percent below last year's average.
Added to this are the more than 20,000 cases of the new coronavirus and some 700 deaths that forced blockades and curfews to prevent the spread of the disease, with its consequent negative impact on local economies.
Other elements taken into account include the years of conflict in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Libya, which extended poverty to more than half of their respective populations.
And many countries in the Middle East, especially the Gulf States plus Iraq and Iran, rely heavily on oil revenues to finance their budgets.
The economy of the United Arab Emirates, the most diversified in the region, is expected to contract by 3.5 percent, that of Qatar by 4.3 percent and that of Iran by six percent, according to IMF forecasts.
Lebanon, which stopped paying its foreign debt, will reduce its weak economy by 12 percentage points, while Iraq, which depends on the oil market, will fall by 4.7 percent.
Only Egypt will continue to be positive with a forecast of two percent growth, although below the six-percent projection it estimated before the pandemic.
The IMF data suggest that uncertainty surrounds its forecasts anyway, while the economic consequences of Covid-19 depend on factors that are difficult to predict, including disease pathways and the intensity of containment efforts. ■