U.S. crude exports expected to double
Topics: CRUDE EXPORT U.S.
Rystad forecasts that U.S. crude exports could increase from current levels of 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) to nearly six million bpd by 2022. This is based off the nation’s expected production increase of 1.2 million bpd year-over-year in 2020 and domestic refineries at capacity to absorb shale growth.
“Crude exports will grow on the back of new infrastructure coming online in Corpus Christi, Texas, and as international crude buyers ramp up efforts to diversify their import sources after the attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and overall rising tensions in the Middle East,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, a senior analyst on Rystad’s oil market team.
Rystad also noted the recent slowdown of U.S. crude exports in third quarter of 2019, due in part to the narrowing of the Brent-WTI price spread and effects from the five percent tariff imposed on U.S. crude by China.
Despite that slowdown, Rystad expects an export rebound to 3.7 million bpd in fourth quarter 2019 before climbing to even higher levels.
“This surge in crude shipments from the U.S. will be made possible by a flurry of new pipeline and export terminal infrastructure coming online in the coming years,” Rodriguez-Masiu said. ■