The National Supply Company (Conab) published the 1st Survey of the 2021/2022 Grain Crop.
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The forecast is for a record grain harvest for the period, with an increase of 35.87 million tons compared to the volume obtained in the previous cycle. The estimate is for an increase of 14.2%, which, if confirmed, will raise total production to 288.61 million tons, setting a new record for national agriculture.
This production refers to an estimate of cultivation in an area of ​​ 71.5 million hectares. The space is 3.6% larger than that registered in 2020/2021. This growth is mainly driven by soybean and 2nd harvest corn crops.
In early October, the areas are being prepared and first crop planting is in its initial phase. In Brazil, it is possible to cultivate three agricultural crops, with second and third crops being cultivated in the same area in succession to the harvest of first crop crops, especially soybeans.
For this new agricultural year, the cultivation of crops in succession to the harvest of first crop crops totals around 21.5 million hectares. Thus, for all crops cultivated for the production of fibers and grains, around 50 million hectares are used.
The highlight among crops is the cultivation of soy, which has a tendency to increase both in the cultivated area and in production. According to the Company's data, the area to be sown should grow 2.5%, going from 38.9 million hectares to 39.91 million hectares.
The expected production should reach 140.75 million tons, which keeps the country as the world's largest producer of the grain.
Oilseed planting has already started in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná. Activities continue at a faster pace compared to the same period last year.
For corn, production is expected to recover, with a forecast increase of 1.6% in the planted area, which could reach 4.41 million hectares in the first harvest. Productivity, at this first moment, is estimated at 6,416 kilos per hectare, resulting in a production of 28.3 million tons.
In the sum for the three harvests of the product, Conab expects a production of 116.3 million tons.
Rice production is expected to remain relatively stable at around 11.6 million tons. Edible beans, on the other hand, tend to show a slight growth of 0.8% in the area to be sown in the first crop. As the product is grown throughout the year, the volume is adjusted within the harvest year.
The estimate is that the total production of beans will reach 2.97 million tons in the three harvests. The production of rice and beans, according to initial estimates, would guarantee the supply of the domestic market.
In the case of cotton, an increase of 10.2% is expected in the planted area of ​​the crop, totaling 1.51 million cultivated hectares. The production of lint tends to be 2.67 million tons, a volume close to that recorded in the 2018/19 harvest.
Among winter crops, wheat, which is in the harvest stage of the 2021 crop, stands out. The expected volume for production this year is 8.19 million tons.
Based on this survey, Conab will inform two supply tables for cotton, rice, beans and corn. This double information will be presented until the end of the marketing of the 2020/2021 harvest. In the case of corn, for example, the two tables will be presented until February of next year, when the 3rd crop of the cereal ends.
In relation to the foreign market, cotton lint and soy continue with a positive scenario. In this survey, Conab maintained the predicted volume of 2.1 million tons for the export of cotton fiber in the 2020/2021 harvest and there was a slight reduction in the planned shipments of soybeans for the period, which was estimated at 84.3 millions of tons.
More specifically on corn, due to the effects of the weather on production and the reversal of the destination of export contracts to the domestic market, the expectation is for a drop in exports compared to the previous crop year, with the estimate of 22.0 being maintained million tons of grain exported. Likewise, the forecast for imports remained unchanged at 2.3 million tons.
As for wheat, the company expects an increase in production combined with an increase in domestic consumption of 3.8% for this new crop.
The scenario is favorable, as carryover stocks will be at more comfortable levels, and the forecast is that they will end the year at 1.09 million tons, showing a clear tendency to recover after two harvests of reduced volumes.
Regarding the prices paid to producers in the main markets, in September compared to August, there was a 2.0% reduction for rice in RS, a drop of 6.1% in bean prices SP colors and stability in black beans PR.
Stable prices also for wheat in PR and soybeans in MT and PR. In MT, there was a 7.8% drop in corn prices and a slight 1.4% increase in cotton prices. ■