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Brazil: Conab predicts new record in grain production in the 2022/23 harvest

Christian Fernsby |
Brazilian grain production could reach 312.4 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest.

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If confirmed, the volume exceeds by 41.5 million tons the record obtained in the recently ended season, when 270.9 million tons were harvested. This is what the first Survey of Grain Crop 2022/23, released by the National Supply Company (Conab) points out.

According to the document, the area destined for planting presents a growth of 2.9% in relation to the 2021/22 cycle, being estimated at 76.6 million hectares.

“It is worth mentioning that in Brazil, considering its vast territorial extension, there is the cultivation of three crops in different periods. Thus, approximately 52.6 million hectares are used for all crops”, reinforces the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro.

Among the products, soybean and corn stand out, which together should register a production of 279.3 million tons.

In the case of soybeans, Brazilian farmers must allocate an area of ​​42.89 million hectares, an increase of 3.4% compared to the previous crop. Grain sowing takes place within the window in the main producing states and reaches 4.6% of the area, with the highest rate recorded in Paraná (9%), followed by Mato Grosso (8.9%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (6%).

With the expansion of the area, Conab's estimate for the production of the oilseed is 152.4 million tons.

For first harvest corn, a 1.5% reduction in the area to be cultivated is expected, due to higher costs as well as a migration to more profitable crops. Planting is advanced in the south of the country, where frequent and well-distributed rainfall favors its initial development, despite the low temperatures recorded that delayed emergence in some regions.

“In the three southern states, where sowing is already advanced, producers are alert to the possible incidence of spittlebug attacks, especially with the increase in temperatures in the coming months”, comments the superintendent of Agricultural Information of the Company, Candice Romero Santos .

Even with the smaller area, it is expected that the cereal harvest in the first harvest will present an increase of 14.6%, being estimated at 28.69 million tons. The good result is due to the expectation of productivity recovery in the current cycle. Adding the three crops of the cereal throughout the 2022/23 season, Conab estimates a production of 126.9 million tons.

Important products for the domestic market, rice and beans, also tend to show a drop in the planted area. Even so, the estimate is for a production of rice at 10.8 million tons, while that of legumes should reach 2.96 million tons, which guarantees the supply in the country.

“Beans are a short-cycle crop, which is an advantage for producers who are able to adapt their planting within a shorter window, without having to give up the production of other grains in the same crop year.

In this scenario, Brazil has three different planting seasons, thus favoring a constant supply of the product throughout the year”, highlights the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen.

For cotton, the expectation is that 1.63 million hectares will be destined for the cultivation of the fiber, an increase of 1.9% in the area sown in the 2022/23 harvest when compared to the previous harvest, resulting in a production of cotton lint. 2.92 million tons.

For winter crops, crops are in the harvest phase or advanced stage of development. The main product sown, wheat is already harvested in 22.4% of the planted area in the country. With expectations of a new record, Conab projects the production of the cereal at 9.4 million tons, a volume 22% greater than in the previous harvest.

Conab's first projections for the 2022/23 crop point to an increase in ending stocks of corn (20%), cotton (17%), beans (31%) and soybeans (45%) compared to the 2021/22 crop. With regard to domestic consumption, the survey points to stability in the consumption of rice and beans, a slight increase in the demand for cotton (2%) and an increase in the consumption of corn and soybeans, of 6.2% and 5% respectively.

For wheat, the trade balance estimates were adjusted in this 1st survey, reducing imports from 6.3 million to 6.1 million tons and increasing foreign sales from 200,000 tons to 2.7 million tons. With the consolidation of the data, the country should end the harvest in August 2023 with a carryover stock of 1.19 million tons.

For soybeans, in 2023, we highlight the estimates of exports of the grain at 95.87 million tons, which represents an increase of 22.5% in relation to the projected for 2022.

“This increase is motivated by a greater supply of grain in the 2022/23 harvest, combined with an increase in world demand and a forecast of a reduction in exports from the United States”, reinforces the superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management at Conab, Allan Silveira.

As for oil, the outlook is for a decrease in exports (from 2.1 million tons in 2022 to 1.8 million tons in 2023), given the expectation of greater production of biodiesel and that Argentina will return more strongly to the soybean oil export market in 2023.

A similar situation occurs with corn export estimates: with the projection of greater production and heated external demand, Conab estimates that 45 million tons will leave the country via ports, which represents an increase of 21.6% in cereal exports in 2023.

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