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Active weather in Eastern U.S.; warm weather and critical fire weather across portions of West

Christian Fernsby |
The mid to upper level flow continues to amplify across the CONUS, leading to an active weather pattern across large portions of the eastern third of the nation.

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An associated surface low is expected to form over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and move offshore the east coast on Saturday.

Friday and Saturday will see stormy weather from the Carolinas into New England over the next 48 hours.

The southern Mid-Atlantic could see as much as 2-3 inches of rainfall with this system over the next two days.

While this region could use the rainfall, isolated flooding may still be possible along urban and low lying areas.

On the southern end of the storm system in north Florida and the Carolinas, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather as shear and instability favor the potential for strong wind gusts and some hail.

On the north side of the system, temperatures will be cold enough for late season accumulating snow across the higher elevations from far northeast Pennsylvania, across northwest New Jersey, northern and eastern New York State, and western, central and northern New England.

High temperatures will be on the cool side in the 30s and 40s for coastal regions for the weekend.

A mid-level trough, surface cold front, is moving eastward across the West Coast and Mountain West and will reach the Plains by Saturday.

Downslope winds, lee troughs, and low relative humidity ahead of the cold front will promote some potential fire weather concerns.

The Storm Prediction Center has an Elevated fire weather risk across the northern Plains for today and a Critical fire weather risk near the southern Plains and the southern Intermountain West.

Winds will be on the higher side, as some gusts could be as high as 35 mph in the Critical fire area.

As for the convective side, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk across eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota for the threat of wind gusts over 55 mph with high-topped supercells on Saturday.

General thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across the Midwest and Kansas/Colorado ahead of the next storm system moving in.

While the overall amplified flow across the CONUS is leading to stormy weather across large portions of the east, the western component of this amplified pattern will support much above average to record warmth across large portions of the western and central U.S.

Record high temperatures are possible today and Saturday from the Southwest into the Great Basin and across the southern Plains on Sunday.

Temperatures in the low 100s to middle 90s are generally forecast across the Southwest over the next 3 days.

The central Plains and Midwest will also be as much as 20 degrees above average ahead of the western trough.

Temperatures in the 70s and 80s will be widespread.

Elsewhere. a big story is the river flooding still ongoing over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys from the multi-day storm last week.


What to read next

U.S.: Extremely critical fire weather, blizzard conditions, severe thunderstorms, snow
U.S.: Severe storms and dangerous southern heat as weekend approaches
U.S.: Widespread severe weather expected across Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions

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