Unsettled weather is forecast to continue sliding eastward today along a cold front currently stretching from the Interior Northeast to the central Gulf Coast and South Texas.
Article continues below
The cold front is expected to reach off the East Coast by Tuesday night, but linger near far southern Texas.
As it does so, a few developing thunderstorms could turn severe across the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic.
The Storm Prediction center has issued a targeted Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms from portions over southeastern Virginia, with a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) extending into eastern Georgia.
Thunderstorms here may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and some hail into early this evening, especially within the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in southeast Virginia.
Slow-moving thunderstorms may also lead to isolated instances of flash flooding throughout far southern Texas, where a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall is in effect.
By tonight, an area of low pressure forming along the aforementioned cold front is forecast to strengthen and swing northeast toward coastal New England.
Areas of light-to-moderate rainfall will impact parts of southern New England into early Wednesday morning as a result.
The low pressure system is then expected to reduce forward motion and occlude near the Gulf of Maine, while continuing to strengthen as a closed upper-level low approaches from the west.
Widespread showers will overspread northern New England, with rain changing to snow across the higher terrain and parts of northern Maine and New Hampshire.
The greatest snowfall amounts through Thursday (up to around 4-6 inches) is most likely to occur across northern Maine and New Hampshire.
Limited overall impacts are anticipated from this wintry activity, per the WPC WSSI.
Elsewhere, relatively light precipitation will be found across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies today as a weak cold front traverses the region.
For the central U.S., active weather returns along a stationary front on Wednesday with the threat of isolated severe thunderstorms and flash floods.
A Marginal Risk of severe weather exists from western Kansas to the southern High Plains, where isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary severe threats.
A few instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out farther northeast from eastern Kansas to far western Missouri as slow-moving thunderstorms develop over the region Wednesday night.
The isolated threat of flash flooding will also linger into Thursday across similar areas due unsettled weather remaining near the meandering frontal boundary extending across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the central Plains.
In the meantime, fire weather remains a concern over portions of the central/southern Plains, where a Critical (level 2/3) fire weather area is highlighted today by SPC.
Conditions for favorable fire activity are also noted over the southern Plains in the medium range forecast, which will need monitored going into this week.
Temperatures through Thursday will remain below average across the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast as the previously mentioned low pressure system near Maine and strong high pressure building into the Upper Great Lakes provides continuous chilly northwest winds.
Highs will struggle to reach above freezing today from northern North Dakota to the U.P. of Michigan.
This equates to around 25 degrees below average.
A few daily low temperature records could fall across the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday morning.
The frost/freeze threat will gradually shift eastward on Wednesday and Thursday, spreading into the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, where a widespread area of Freeze Warnings, Freeze Watches, and Frost Advisories are in effect through Wednesday/Thursday morning.
Conversely, above average temperatures will hang on for one more day across the southern Mid-Atlantic ahead of the approaching cold front.
Warm temperatures underneath a building upper-level ridge will spread from the Southwest to the central Plains by midweek, where highs could reach into 80s and low 90s. ■