Showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out today across the central U.S. from the south-central Plains to the Upper Midwest associated with upper level energy well ahead of a cold front coming through the West.
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The best chance for heavy to excessive rainfall should be across parts of Iowa into southeast Minnesota where the day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights a slight risk for flash flooding.
The main cold front looks to be mainly precipitation free as it traverses the Intermountain West, although dry and windy condtions ahead of the front may promote elevated to critical fire weather threats across the northern Great Basin.
By Sunday, precipitation should increase in coverage along and ahead of the front as it moves into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with locally heavy rainfall possible in some spots.
A weakening stationary front and abundant tropical moisture will continue the threat for showers and thunderstorms across much of the Gulf Coast states as well as the Southeast and Florida today.
The threat for heavy rainfall appears very localized, but much of this region has seen much above normal rainfall recently and so where heavy rain does fall, it could result in flooding concerns.
Parts of the Florida peninsula and western Gulf Coast seems most likely to receive more enhanced rains through this weekend as weak energy moves through aloft.
Monsoonal moisture should finally begin to wane across the Southwest this weekend, though some showers and storms are still possible across the Four Corners states on Saturday.
Just given how overly saturated this area is, it will not take much to cause issues with a very localized flash flood threat, particularly for burn scars and slot canyons.
In terms of temperatures across the CONUS during the short range, the cold front across the West should usher in a much cooler airmass into the Northwest states with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees below normal in some locations.
Meanwhile, ahead of this front, heat will build across the central U.S. as well as farther east across the Midwest as upper level ridging aloft dominates. ■
Modified arctic air combined with a moisture-laden area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast will continue to allow for a broad area of winter weather impacts from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast today into early Saturday morning.