A storm system over the Southeast Wednesday afternoon will track to the northeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic by Thursday morning with showers and a chance for thunderstorms continuing along its path.
The storm eventually tracks off the East Coast by Thursday afternoon with only lingering spotty showers expected along the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts.
The heaviest rain totals of up to 1 to 2 inches are anticipated from eastern North Carolina up the 95 corridor through southern New Jersey.
Farther west, a Pacific disturbance will continue to strengthen Wednesday night over the Four Corners region.
As the upper trough strengthens, it will blanket the central and southern Rockies in snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Front Range of the Rockies in Colorado and northern New Mexico as well as the High Plains, including portions of the Denver metro area.
Widespread totals of 3-6 inches are likely, with higher amounts of 5-10 inches possible for higher elevations in the Denver vicinity and over a foot possible in the foothills.
Temperature-wise, the April-like temperature regime will stick around through Thursday from the Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Daytime high temperature departures ranging between 10 to 20 degrees above normal will result in actual high temperatures reaching the 70s in the Midwest and Ohio Valley Thursday and expanding into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Friday.
The overall hottest temperatures will be in Texas where high temperatures will make a run at the 90s along the Rio Grande in South Texas.
In contrast, the upper low traversing the Rockies and central Plains on Thursday will provide a shot of below normal max temps (~10-15 degrees below normal) to these regions.
As the pressure gradient tightens around a developing area of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies on Thursday, stronger winds and dry dew points behind a sharpening dryline will support a favorable environment for fire weather.
As a result, a Critical Risk of fire weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for portions of central and western Texas for Thursday.
The developing low/storm system in the lee of the Rockies over the Texas Panhandle Thursday will become the focus for active weather the rest of the period.
A cold/stationary front will remain roughly in place north of the low across the Central Plains as a dryline and cold front south of the low move east and southwestward, respectively.
Gulf moisture will surge northward ahead of the dryline and cold front leading to the development of widespread thunderstorms, including the potential for severe weather, from southern Oklahoma and northeast Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
A Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) has been issued for these areas with the usual modes of severe weather (damaging wings, hail, tornadoes) all possible.
Locally excessive rainfall rates are also possible within the heavier showers and thunderstorms.
The low will continue to track towards the northeast into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday.
Severe thunderstorms will once again be possible ahead of the cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast as a secondary surge of moisture moves northward over the region.
A Slight Risk of severe weather has been issued here as well for the chance of damaging winds and hail, and possibly a tornado or two.
Further north, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely from the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys northeast through the Ohio Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes.
Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible.
A wintry mix is also possible in the colder air north of the front from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes.
However, accumulations more than a light dusting to an inch of snow are not currently anticipated. ■
A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front.