A significant heavy rainfall event is forecast for the Southwest as a mid-level low and anomalously high moisture associated with a remnant tropical wave help to enhance storm development associated with an already active monsoon season.
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A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today and Saturday.
Areal average rainfall totals of 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts approaching 5-6 inches, may lead to numerous instances of flash flooding.
Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall are also in place for a broader area into the Four Corners region today and the southern High Plains Saturday as additional scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.
Areas of complex terrain, slot canyons, arroyos, and burn scars are especially vulnerable for flash flooding.
By Saturday night into Sunday morning, the focus of heavy rain is forecast to shift eastward into the southern High Plains toward the Texas Panhandle.
Meanwhile along the West Coast, hot weather will persist from California northward into the Pacific Northwest under the influence of an upper-level ridge.
Numerous heat-related advisories are in place as temperatures are forecast to reach into the upper 90s to low 100s today for portions of the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin.
As an upper-level trough approaches from the west, temperatures will cool a bit Saturday with highs in the low to mid-90s.
Further south in the central valleys of California, the heat is forecast to peak on Saturday where afternoon temperatures are expected to reach into the low to mid-100s.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue along a wavy, stationary front stretching from the Southeast into the southern Plains and also with a frontal system moving from the northern Plains into the Midwest into the weekend.
The greatest chance for some scattered instances of flash flooding is forecast for coastal plains of the South Carolina today.
Meanwhile, instability associated with an upper low rotating across the northern Plains toward the Midwest could trigger severe thunderstorms later today into tonight from Iowa into northern Missouri and western Illinois.
This system will likely trigger additional strong to severe thunderstorms as it approaches the Great Lakes later Saturday into Sunday morning.
Elsewhere, well below normal high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are forecast for most of the Southwest, Great Basin, and southern Rockies due to the widespread clouds and rain.
Below normal highs are also forecast for the Southeast (low to mid-80s) and for the Northern Plains (low to mid-70s) under the upper low, with temperatures increasing a few degrees closer to normal Saturday.
Hotter temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees will return to the Mid-Atlantic and New England with otherwise tranquil conditions expected into the weekend. ■
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