Hurricane Kay continues its northward progression, parallel to coastal stretches of Baja California, before being forecast to make a westward curve away from southern California due to the impressive upper-level ridge currently bringing record-breaking temperatures to the region.
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Despite the system remaining fairly far offshore, heavy rainfall is likely across the Desert Southwest and southern California as a surge of moisture moves northward, with several inches of rain possible through Sunday.
Hence, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect on Friday across parts of southwestern Arizona and south California, with the threat pushing northward on Saturday leading to a Slight Risk (Level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall encompassing a more expansive portion of the region on Day 2.
Further north, dangerous heat is ongoing and forecast to continue in interior parts of California, with temperatures in the triple-digits through Friday before the impressive upper-level ridge responsible for the extreme temperatures finally dissipates.
Above-average temperatures will then slide northward into the Pacific Northwest through the rest of the weekend, with highs 10 - 20 degrees F above-average possible.
In addition to the heat risk, dangerous fire weather is possible this weekend for coastal Oregon and Washington, with expansive Red Flag Warnings issued and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighting an Elevated Risk for fire weather on Friday.
Further east, an impressive cold front is forecast to progress eastward through the weekend, bringing an end to above-average temperatures in the Intermountain West, where temperatures 20-30 degrees F below-average are possible in the northern Rockies on Friday.
Furthermore, the potential exists for mixed precipitation in the highest elevations (above 10,000ft) of Wyoming.
Elsewhere, hot temperatures in the central and northern Plains on Thursday will quickly be extinguished overnight and into Friday by the advancing powerful cold front.
Cool high temperatures in the 60s and 70s are forecast for the region through the weekend, with areas further east, such as a Missouri Valley & Midwest, not expected to be able to enjoy the cooldown until the frontal passage on Saturday into Saturday evening.
While temperatures will be much more pleasant, the potential exists for showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front to spoil some outdoor plans.
Unsettled weather is likely in the Southeast and Gulf Coast states this weekend, as tropical moisture is forecast to funnel into the region due to a streghtening upper-level low over the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms will lead to heavy rainfall rates at times through Sunday, leading to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall being issued for the Days 1-3 timeframe. ■
A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front.