The main weather story through Thursday will be the active pattern east of the Continental Divide, with numerous chances for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms, especially in the central U.S.
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In the meantime, as a frontal boundary slowly pushes southward through the Mid-Atlantic, a warm, moist airmass on the southern side of the front will be conducive to the development of severe thunderstorms throughout southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina through Tuesday evening.
As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms.
Further west, heavy rainfall will be a major concern across southern Texas, as intense rainfall rates and flash flooding will be possible through Wednesday.
The potential exists for several rounds of heavy rain, which could lead to localized rainfall totals in excess of 5 inches, resulting in likely instances of flash flooding from the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast to areas inland across the southeast Texas Triangle, which includes the entire Houston metro region.
The heavy rainfall threat will linger into Wednesday for the aforementioned area due to the eventual organized convective complex drifting slowly northward into eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
To further highlight the flash flood concern, a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much of Southeast Texas for Tuesday afternoon/evening and Wednesday.
Residents and visitors throughout this region are advised to pay close attention to the forecast, especially if you live within a flood-prone region.
As always, be sure to never drive through a flooded roadway and have multiple ways to receive warnings.
Looking northward, the frontal boundary responsible for severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic will also aid in the development of a convective complex that is expected to produce a multitude of weather hazards across the central Plains on Tuesday.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible across Kansas and far northern Oklahoma, including heavy rainfall rates embedded in these storms, which could lead to isolated flooding concerns.
As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Kansas in an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms, while an overlapping Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also in effect for the area.
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough pressing eastward into the Plains will promote further chances of thunderstorm development and heavy rainfall stretching from the High Plains southward through areas just east of the Rockies.
With plentiful atmospheric moisture surging northward and upslope enhancement at work, widespread areal average precipitation amounts between 1-3" across eastern Wyoming, southeast Montana, and parts of the western Dakotas are forecast through Thursday, resulting in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall being hoisted for these areas on Wednesday and Thursday.
Severe thunderstorms will also be of concern on both days, with the threat shifting slightly eastward into the central Plains and extreme western Missouri Valley on Thursday as a deepening surface low in southern Colorado and attendant dryline begins to slowly track into Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.
The primary hazards associated with this system will be damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
Meanwhile, on the southern side of this developing system, strong winds and low relative humidity will create Critical Fire Weather conditions from south-central Colorado throughout much of New Mexico on Wednesday.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for this region as well.
Elsewhere, well-above average temperatures are forecast east of the Continental Divide, with further warming expected across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the end of the week.
By Thursday, almost all locations east of the Rockies will experience highs in the 80s, with portions of New England remaining in the 70s. ■