Active weather across the western half of CONUS continues today, as a potent storm system associated with a deep upper-level trough progresses eastward through the central Plains, generating significant weather hazards including severe thunderstorms and isolated instances of heavy rainfall.
Article continues below
Warm, moist air surging ahead of a strong cold front pushing eastward through the southern Plains, in conjunction with ample low-level and deep-layer wind shear will create conditions ripe for a severe weather outbreak across the Ark-La-Tex region, with the potential for destructive winds, isolated hail, and tornadoes.
As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms for northeastern Texas, southwestern Arkansas, and southeastern Oklahoma, with an Enhanced Risk encompassing the aforementioned area across the broader Ark-La-Tex region.
In addition to the developing severe weather situation, the potential also exists for localized heavy rainfall rates associated with thunderstorms extending from the Gulf Coast northward through the Mississippi Valley and Midwest.
However, the fast-moving nature of the system will inhibit flash flooding potential, despite the anomalously moist air in place.
Conditions will begin to improve in the Plains late this evening into tomorrow as the cold front pushes eastward into the Southeast, where showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue, albeit with less severe potential as the system weakens and convection moves into a region of more stable atmospheric conditions.
Isolated areas of heavy rainfall, especially in the lower Mississippi, may occur tomorrow afternoon, although the potential for isolated instances of flash flooding will remain low.
Further west, an atmospheric river event continues to dump low-elevation rain and mountain snow across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as continuous moisture funnels into the region.
Rainfall totals of 2-6" are possible across the region before the moisture plume pushes south, which, in unison with the recent rainfall, may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas with elevation.
As a result, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of western Washington and northwestern Oregon through this evening.
Isolated areas of heavy mountain snow may also be possible in higher elevations of the Cascade mountains.
Precipitation will spread inland this afternoon into tomorrow, where mixed precipitation and snow will fall across the higher elevations, leading to Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories being issued for portions of eastern Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming.
Wintry precipitation will continue through Saturday into early Sunday as a cold front associated with the system moves southeast across the northwestern U.S.
Cold air will accompany this system, and temperatures will drop to 15-20 degrees below normal across the northern High Plains by Sunday.
In addition to the precipitation, strong, gusty winds will impact much of the region as the system moves inland and intensifies, with expansive High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories issued for much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Across the eastern third of the country, warmer-than-average temperatures will persist under the influence of an expansive high-pressure system centered over the Northeast.
Widespread above-average highs are forecast today across the Ohio Valley and Midwest, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s (15-25 degrees above average) due to a dry, southerly flow.
As the high pressure continues pushing east, the warm air will shift eastward into the Southeast and Northeast this weekend, leading to delightful weather for outdoor activities. ■