Showers and thunderstorms will focus around a low pressure system moving through the Midwest/Ohio Valley today.
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Localized heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is possible over much of Kentucky, where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect.
Some thunderstorms may turn severe, especially over west-central Kentucky where a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect.
Wind and hail will be the primary threats with storms that materialize.
Additional severe thunderstorm activity is marginally possible along the attendant cold front over portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, around an upstream system moving through eastern North Dakota and the Upper Midwest, and another system gliding across the eastern Colorado and the Southern Plains.
A deep low pressure system will weaken as it enters the Pacific Northwest, spreading showers and thunderstorms across coastal Washington/Oregon and the Northern Rockies today.
This system will re-intensify over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday, where it's forecast to generate rain and thunderstorms.
Some rainfall, particularly over portions of northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, will be heavy enough to produce flash flooding.
A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is in effect for this area as a result.
Severe thunderstorms may develop over central/northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and central/northern Wisconsin Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
A Slight Risk of Severe thunderstorms is in effect for those areas with the main threats being large hail, damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
Cold air surges through the Northwest on the backside of the aforementioned system today and Thursday before arriving in the Central Rockies and Northern/Central Plains on Friday.
Upper-level ridging will continue a trend of record warmth in the Central/Southern Plains over the next couple of days.
High temperatures in the 90s and 100s will be 20-30 degrees above average for many parts of north-central Texas, Oklahoma and the Central Plains through Thursday.
These temperatures will either tie or break many existing records.
There will be little respite for parts of north-central Texas and central Oklahoma in the evenings as lows are forecast to remain in the 70s over the next couple of days.
A retrograding ridge will jut into the Southeast from the western Atlantic late Thursday into Friday leading the East Coast to experience a significant warm up heading into the weekend.
Much of the West will be warmer than normal today and Thursday, as well.
Strong winds will overlap a very dry airmass over the Southwest leading to a Critical Risk of fire weather for much of the 4 corners region on Thursday. ■
A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front.