A strong autumn cold front traversing most of the Nation through the end of this week will be responsible for active weather for some and a stark pattern change for others.
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Starting in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, numerous ongoing and developing thunderstorms through tonight are expected to potentially produce areas of severe weather and heavy rain.
Multiple rounds of heavy rain culminating with a strong line of robust thunderstorms pushing towards the southeast across Texas tonight will lead to several inches of storm total rainfall.
Intense rain rates associated with these storms could overlap with earlier rainfall to likely produce instances of flash flooding from north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex.
A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect for this region, including over 8 million residents.
With much of the southern Plains experiencing severe to exceptional drought conditions, urban regions and areas under longer duration heavy rainfall are most likely to be impacted by rapid water rises and street flooding.
Additionally, developing thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening are anticipated to produce very large hail and significant severe wind gusts, along with possibly a couple tornadoes.
This severe threat extends from the Rolling Plains of Texas to the central Red River Valley of the South, where an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center.
These storms are expected to sink southward and weaken over South Texas on Thursday, with an isolated flash flooding threat remaining.
By Friday, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to approach the Northeast after spreading scattered showers and storms across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Thursday.
Locally heavy rain may accompany the cold front and produce isolated instances of flash flooding from western Pennsylvania to central Connecticut, including much of New York State.
This system is also expected to strengthen and potentially produce additional flooding impacts throughout the Interior Northeast and New England by Saturday.
The other aspect of this weather system that many are likely to find as a welcome change will be the entrance of below average and crisp fall temperatures.
These fall-like temperatures will start in the northern Plains on Thursday and overspread much of the Great Plains and Midwest by Friday.
Well above average to potentially record-breaking temperatures over the Northeast today will come to a gradual end on Thursday and Friday as cloud cover and rain potential spreads east, with much cooler conditions on the horizon for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this upcoming weekend. ■
A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front.