The weather pattern will remain rather active from the Rockies to the Appalachians through the end of the week as a well organized low pressure system emerges over the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon, and then progresses to the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon.
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One of the hazards from this event will be the plethora of heavy rainfall that is forecast from northern Texas to Kansas and western Missouri, with the highest totals likely over eastern Oklahoma where a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect through early Thursday.
The potential exists for patchy areas of 3-5 inch rainfall by midday Thursday, and training convection with rainfall rates well over an inch per hour in some instances could easily lead to flash flooding.
Another hazard will be the Enhanced to Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms across this same general area in the warm sector of the low through Wednesday night, with the potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
The severe threat is then greatest across the ArkLaTex region for Thursday.
Elsewhere across the nation, fire weather concerns will be making weather headlines across much of New Mexico and portions of Arizona and western Texas through early Thursday, with warm temperatures, extremely low humidity, and gusty winds increasing the potential for wildfires.
In addition, degraded air quality is likely in some areas owing to wildfire smoke and also blowing dust.
For the Pacific Northwest, showers and high elevation snow returns on Thursday as a Pacific storm system enters the region, with the greatest precipitation expected for the Oregon Cascades.
In terms of temperatures, it will remain rather cool from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with highs running 10 to 20 degrees below average in many cases, mainly owing to increased cloud cover and rain.
On the contrary, it will remain warm and humid across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region with the cold front not making much progress past the Interstate 20 corridor.
Temperatures will also be above average across much of the Intermountain West to close out the week. ■