Early morning surface observations show a dry, continental air mass moving from the northern/central Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) into the southern High Plains.
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The strong low-level flow is maintaining boundary-layer mixing near the surface and poor overnight RH recovery from southeast WY into the OK/TX Panhandles.
This air mass will undergo further drying today as winds increase in response to the tightening pressure gradient and downslope flow off the CO Rockies increases.
Afternoon RH values are expected to fall into the 15-20% range from eastern CO into central OK and northern TX.
Ensemble guidance continues to show high probability for widespread critical fire weather conditions across this region with 20-30 mph sustained winds.
Extremely critical conditions remain likely across the OK/TX Panhandles where deep mixing will allow for single-digit RH and wind gusts up to 40-50 mph.
ERCs across this region remain elevated near the 90th percentile, and these conditions will likely impact recent fires across the OK Panhandle.
Similar wind speeds are probable further north into eastern CO and western KS, but confidence in extremely critical RH is lower.
Dry, post-frontal air will sweep across southern TX through the morning hours.
Mostly clear skies will allow for strong diurnal warming and boundary-layer mixing, which should allow RH values into fall into the 20-25% range.
Frequent wind gusts up to 20-25 mph will support periods of critical fire weather conditions, but widespread elevated conditions appear more probable.
Despite patchy rainfall over the past two days, fuels across the majority of the region remain very receptive and will support a fire weather concern across most of southern TX. ■
Modified arctic air combined with a moisture-laden area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast will continue to allow for a broad area of winter weather impacts from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast today into early Saturday morning.