U.S.: Severe thunderstorms, excessive rainfall, and heat into weekend
KEY POINTS
- The large scale flow across the nation is forecast not to change
- The slow moving eastern closed low will support a broad region of precipitation
The large scale flow across the nation is forecast not to change appreciably during the first few days of summer, remaining highly amplified.
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The record breaking heat wave will persist across large portions of Texas
Triple digit heat will be unrelenting in New Mexico
The southern portions of these areas have seen much above average precipitation over the past few weeks with totals 300 to 600% of normal across the Southeast, North Florida into portions of the Carolinas and far southwest Virginia.
Additional heavy rainfall potential across these areas will pose the threat of flash flooding.
Farther to the north, the rainfall will be much welcomed across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic where moderate drought conditions exist.
Wet weather also likely over the next few days across large portions of the mid section of the nation from the Northern Plains, southward into portions of the Central to Southern Plains.
Similar to portions of the Southeast, large sections of the Central to Northern Plains have also seen much above average precip over the past few weeks with the potential additional heavy rains also posing a flash flood threat across this area.
In addition to a flash flood threat, thunderstorms across the mid section of the nation will also pose a severe weather threat with large hail and high winds the greatest threat, along with a lesser threat for tornadoes.
Across areas of the east and central U.S.
that have higher rainfall chances over the next few day, high temperatures will be below to much below normal.
Record low maximum temperatures are possible Thursday across portions of the Southern Appalachians from Upstate South Carolina, eastern Tennessee into Southwest Virginia.
While wet weather and below average temperatures affect large portions of the eastern and central U.S., the record breaking heat wave will persist from eastern and southern portions of New Mexico, east across large portions of Texas.
An upper ridge is forecast to remain centered across these regions, supporting a continuation of much above average to record high temperatures, along with high heat indices from very humid conditions combined with the very high temperatures.
Excessive Heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect across much of Texas into southern and southeastern New Mexico.
There may be a brief respite from the very hot temps for northern Texas over the next two days in the vicinity of a stationary front which will support increased clouds and rain chances.
However, this will be short lived with triple digit heat rebuilding across this area this weekend into early next week.
To the south of this, triple digit heat will be unrelenting from south and eastern New Mexico, across much of central to south Texas.
Across these areas, near record to record high temperatures are possible through the remainder of the week into next week, along with dangerous heat indices values.
An elevated fire weather risk is also possible over the next few days from eastern Arizona, across much of New Mexico.
Dry conditions, low relative humidities and windy conditions will support the enhanced fire risk, with this risk likely continuing into the weekend and early next week given little expected change to the overall weather pattern across this portion of the nation. ■