An area of low pressure currently located over the Ohio Valley will continue to spread showers and thunderstorms across much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic tonight before reforming near the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula on Saturday.
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An associated cold front and lifting warm front over the southern Mid-Atlantic will combine to create ripe conditions for some thunderstorms to turn severe.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather through tonight from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Florida Panhandle.
Tornado Watches have also been issued for much of this area to highlight the potential for thunderstorms to produce tornadoes, along with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
The severe weather threat will drastically diminish on Saturday as the cold front pushes off the East Coast.
Meanwhile, numerous rounds of heavy rain north of the warm front and eventually northwest of the developing coastal low will likely lead to scattered instances of flash flooding overnight from the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians into the northern Mid-Atlantic.
Showers will linger over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England on Saturday, making for a dreary start to Mother's Day Weekend.
Gusty east-northeasterly winds will also lead to potential coastal hazards, such as coastal flooding and rip currents, from New Jersey to Delaware.
Due to the combination of thick cloud cover, rain, and gusty northeast winds, much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will experience a chilly weekend with well below average temperatures and highs only into the 50s.
Elsewhere, a deepening upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves entering the Northwest will bring colder air and unsettled weather into the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies.
Heavy snow is possible across the Cascades and mountainous terrain of Idaho and southwest Montana, where over 6 inches of snow is likely.
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible along coastal sections of the Northwest.
Eventually, as the system emerges into the northern Plains, showers and thunderstorms may develop.
Isolated storms may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail, as well as the chance for isolated flash flooding over the eastern Dakotas into central Nebraska.
High winds may also lead to dangerous travel conditions for high profile vehicles over the northern High Plains this evening as the aforementioned system ejects out of the northern Rockies.
High Wind Warnings have been issued across north-central Montana.
Gusty winds may also be experienced across parts of the central Great Basin and central/northern Sierra Nevada through Saturday morning.
As the previously mentioned upper-level trough deepens over the West Coast, a downstream ridge will build over the central U.S. and lead to summer-like heat over parts of the southern Plains before intensifying later this weekend.
Highs will soar into the upper 90s and triple digits throughout the southern High Plains and much of Texas.
Highs into the 90s will expand into the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Meanwhile, heat indices will approach 110 degrees across South Texas.
This early-season heat will potentially break several daily high temperature records and could be dangerous for residents if proper heat safety is not followed.
Overnight temperatures will offer some relief as lows dip into the 70s.
The other aspect of the warm temperatures will be fire weather danger.
For much of the Southwest, southern Rockies, and southern High Plains, gusty winds and extremely low relative humidity will create conditions for wildfires to start easily and spread uncontrollably.
Red Flag Warnings have been issued and expand from the Mojave Desert of California and Nevada to West Texas and southeast Colorado. ■