The main weather story across the Lower 48 over the next few days will be associated with a progressing cold front pushing from the Great Plains to the East Coast, along with a developing strong low pressure system over the Great Lakes by Sunday.
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The aforementioned cold front currently stretches from Minnesota to the southern High Plains, with a dry line extending across central Oklahoma and Texas.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop later this evening and overnight along these boundaries across portions of the central Plains and southern Texas.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the most likely hazards associated with the eventual storms.
By Saturday, the advancing cold front is anticipated to shift eastward and increase the severe thunderstorm threat throughout the middle/lower Mississippi Valley as cold air clashes with a warm and moist airmass in place.
Thunderstorms developing between northern Louisiana and central Missouri will have the potential to produce large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, as well as a couple of tornadoes.
In order to further highlight the threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for central/southern Missouri, much of Arkansas, and northern Louisiana.
Along with the severe weather threat, isolated instances of flash flooding are possible along the cold front as it stretches from the Upper Midwest to the central Gulf Coast.
Chances are greater across the central Gulf Coast for several inches of rainfall and scattered flash floods.
As the cold front speeds into the Southeast on Sunday, additional chances for severe weather are possible.
Along this same frontal boundary, a deepening area of low pressure is expected to spread hazardous weather into parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend.
A sharp upper-level trough that eventually cuts off into an upper-level low will be responsible for the strengthening storm system as it is currently forecast to progress from eastern Iowa Saturday night towards the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday Initially, areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall should overspread much of the region on Saturday and could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially for areas vulnerable due to recent snowmelt.
As the system strengthens on Sunday, gusty winds up to 50 mph are possible across the eastern Dakotas and into parts of the Midwest.
Additionally, cold air aloft along with increasing precipitation on the backside of the low will allow for a corridor of potentially heavy snow throughout portions of Wisconsin and the western U.P.
of Michigan.
Uncertainty remains regarding the exact snowfall amounts and surface temperatures to allow for accumulation, but a quick burst of heavy snow is possible in this region Sunday night into Monday.
Elsewhere, a lifting and weak upper-level low entering the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday is forecast to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the area.
Most of the shower activity this afternoon stretches from the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians to the southern Mid-Atlantic.
This unsettled weather should lift northward to begin the weekend and offer spotty thunderstorm chances across the Mid-Atlantic.
Much of this region has endured a dry start to spring, so any rainfall should remain beneficial.
Temperatures throughout the eastern U.S. will also remain well above average through much of the weekend, with highs into the 70s and 80s reaching as far north as Michigan, New York State, and Vermont.
Unsettled weather is also anticipated to return to the Pacific Northwest by Saturday as a parade of storm systems take aim at this part of the country.
Much of the precipitation through Monday morning is forecast to remain confined to eastern Oregon and Washington, including the Cascades, until spreading further inland across northern Idaho and northwest Montana Sunday night.
Coastal/valley rainfall amounts and mountain snow is expected to remain light to moderate, with liquid equivalent precipitation amounts generally under 2 inches for the entire timeframe. ■
Modified arctic air combined with a moisture-laden area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast will continue to allow for a broad area of winter weather impacts from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast today into early Saturday morning.