No big changes expected over the next few days to the position of the persistent mid to upper level closed high that stretches from the Southwest into the Southern Plains.
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This closed high will continue to produce above average temperatures across much of the western to central U.S. over the next few days, with the core of the greatest high temperature anomalies stretching across the Central to Southern Plains.
Numerous record high temperatures are possible Tuesday from western Kansas, southward through much of Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico and western Arkansas.
A cold front sinking southward through the Central Plains on Wednesday will bring slight cooling to this region, but the record heat will continue farther to the south across much of Texas into northern Louisiana.
Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings currently stretch across much of the Plains, the central Valley of California and portions of Arizona, affecting nearly 40 million people as of Monday afternoon.
The above mentioned cold front that brings some relief to the record high temperatures over the next few days over the Northern and Central Plains will also be responsible for thunderstorms that will bring the potential for severe weather, heavy rains and isolated flooding from portions of the Northern Plains, eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes.
Dry conditions and gusty winds in the wake of the front pushing through the Northern to Central Plains will keep an elevated fire weather threat over the next few days across portions of the Northern Rockies, Northern Great Basin and into the Central High Plains.
Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms are also expected over the next few days from the Southwest into the Southern Great Basin and Southern Rockies around the peripheries of the closed upper high centered from the Southwest into the Southern Plains.
These storms may produce locally heavy rains, leading to isolated flash flooding.
Across the East, thunderstorms may affect the major metro areas from Washington to Boston late Monday afternoon into evening, bringing locally heavy rains and isolated flash flooding.
More widespread heavy rains possible this evening into Monday night from far northern NY State into northern New England.
Recent dry conditions across these areas has resulted in low stream flows and should decrease any flooding risk. ■
A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front.