A complex summer pattern continues to unfold across central and southern portions of the Lower 48, with the forecast on track for multiple corridors of severe weather and heavy rainfall today.
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A slow moving frontal boundary will continue to serve as a catalyst for widespread thunderstorms as it interacts with Deep Gulf of Mexico moisture in place and warm summer-time temperatures across much of the Midwest/Mississippi Valley.
After nearly 10 inches of rain fell across southern Arkansas/northwest Louisiana last night (prompting multiple Flash Flood Emergencies), very heavy rainfall is expected to shift eastward across central Mississippi later today, where localized rainfall totals of 8" are possible through tomorrow.
Accordingly, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) was introduced across central Mississippi today as numerous instances of flash flooding are possible.
Elsewhere, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) extends across southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri, as well as portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Lower Great Lakes tonight as a well defined complex of thunderstorms rolls south and east today.
An Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) is outlined by the Storm Prediction Center across portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri, primarily for damaging wind gusts (some of which could be greater than 75 mph) and large hail.
The upper-level trough and surface frontal system will gradually translate eastward Thursday towards the East Coast, renewing chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as southerly flow ahead of the system draw moisture northward.
Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall remain across portions of Upstate New York, interior New England, as well as the Upper Ohio Valley through Friday.
Following the catastrophic flooding earlier this week, interior New England remains particularly sensitive to any additional rainfall, so the forecast will need to be monitored very closely as any changes can bring big impacts.
Further west across the Tennessee Valley into the Central Plains, broad coverage of showers and thunderstorms will support some instances of isolated to scattered flash flooding and severe weather through the end of the work week.
Meanwhile, a stagnant upper-level high in place over the Southwest/northern Mexico will not only remain in place but begin to build in coverage, particularly to the northwest over the Great Basin and California.
Widespread heat-related advisories and warnings remain in place across the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley as well as portions of the Desert Southwest and California as a very intense heat wave takes shape.
By this weekend, several locations across the West look to make a run to tie or break their all time record high.
For locations further east in the Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s combined with high humidity will make it feel warmer than 115 degrees this week.
Unfortunately, the long term outlook for the region shows a continued heatwave through this weekend and into next week.
To underscore just how expansive this heat is, based off the current forecast approximately 27 million people across the Lower 48 will experience an air temperature or heat index above 110 over the next 7 days.
It is imperative users take action to limit their exposure to the oppressive hot weather as it looks to stick around for the time being. ■