Renewed rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday ahead of an upper-level wave along the western Gulf Coast northeastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
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While storm coverage and intensity are expected to be lower compared to Thursday, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect as plentiful Gulf moisture will still lead to locally heavy rainfall and some scattered instances of flash flooding.
Additional storms will spread eastward along the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, but the risk for flash flooding should remain more isolated.
Meanwhile, an upper-level trough with embedded shortwave energy will bring precipitation chances across portions of the West, Plains, and Mississippi Valley the next couple of days.
Lower elevation rain (possibly mixed with some snow) as well as higher elevation mountain snow are forecast across the Pacific Northwest/northern California east to the northern Rockies Friday, shifting focus into the northern/central Rockies Saturday.
Little to no snow accumulations are expected for lower elevations, but moderate to heavy snowfall is forecast for the regional mountain ranges.
Further east, an embedded shortwave will help to strengthen/organize a low pressure system over the Central Plains in the lee of the Rockies by early Saturday.
Moist southerly return flow will lead to an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms, first north of a frontal boundary through the central Plains during the day Saturday, with additional storms expected
along and ahead of the boundary from the central/southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley Saturday night.
Increasing shear as well as some elevated instability along the boundary from the central/southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley may lead to some more potent, intense thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the region with a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) mainly for the threat of large hail.
A more widespread, significant risk of severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley Sunday.
To the north, a couple rounds of winter weather are expected in the colder airmass north of a wavy frontal boundary extending from the northern Plains east through the Northeast.
An initial shortwave passing west to east along the Canadian border over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain on Friday.
Snow is most likely for locations close to the Canadian border and into the UP of Michigan, with ice expected just to the south from northern North Dakota east through northern Minnesota/Wisconsin and into the UP of Michigan.
While snow accumulations should remain light, significant ice accumulations of greater than 0.25" will be possible, especially across the UP of Michigan.
The wave will move quickly eastward over the interior Northeast/New England Friday night into Saturday, with light to moderate snow expected along the Canadian border from Upstate New York into
northern New England/Maine.
A swath of freezing rain is expected to the south from Upstate New York into central New England with more potentially significant accumulations greater than 0.25" possible.
Also on Saturday, the upper-level wave responsible for thunderstorms to the south will lead to a swath of light to moderate snowfall from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with the chance for additional disruptive accumulating ice from freezing rain.
The snowfall is currently most likely from western South Dakota northeast through central/northern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, with ice most likely just to the south
of the snow band from central Minnesota east into northern Wisconsin, the UP of Michigan, and the northern LP of Michigan.
More significant ice accumulations of greater than 0.25" will be possible.
Temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. will be well above average heading into the weekend under the influence of upper-level ridging.
The greatest anomalies upwards of 30 to 40 degrees will be focused form the central Plains northeastward into the Upper Missouri/Mississippi Valley on Friday where highs into the mid- to upper 80s may tie/break records for the day.
However, these temperatures will be short lived for the northern Plains/Upper Midwest as a cold front pushing through the region Saturday will bring temperatures down into the 30s and 40s.
More broadly, highs from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic will be in the 60s and 70s, with 70s and 80s from the Southern Plains east into the Southeast.
One exception to the above average temperatures will be along the northern tier from the northern Plains east through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast/New England where highs will be much colder and in the 30s and 40s.
Temperatures over the West will generally be around average, with highs in the 50s for the Pacific Northwest/Interior West, the 60s in California, and the 70s and 80s into the Southwest.
The warm temperatures along with dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico and southwestern Texas have led to a Critical Fire Weather Risk (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center Saturday. ■
New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced that AgriAmerica Fruit Products has completed the revitalization and upgrade of a 69,000-square-foot grape juice processing facility located at 200 Water Street in the Village of Fredonia.